Conditions
still appear favorable for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms across
north and central Texas
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Locally heavy rains are also expected
tonight as shower and thunderstorm activity becomes widespread.
Overview
and impacts: A strong upper level system
will move from New Mexico this morning across Texas and Oklahoma
tonight. A cold front and dry line across OK and west TX will strengthen and
move east tonight. With moderate instability in place, thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon along and just east of the cold front and
dry line. Some of the thunderstorms are
likely to
become severe and produce large hail and
damaging winds as they spread east and northeast across north and central Texas through tonight. A
threat of isolated tornadoes will accompany any organized storms that remain separated
from other storms this afternoon and early tonight. Some flooding of streets and low-lying areas
will be possible this evening and overnight where localized rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches occur.
Timing: The severe weather reports are expected to be
concentrated between 4 pm and 10 pm when the atmosphere is most unstable, but
there will be a continued risk of severe thunderstorms through the night. The overnight severe weather threat will be
dependent on whether or not a squall line of storms can organize and strengthen
along the advancing cold front.
Here
is a timeline estimate of when we expect the severe weather threat to be
maximized across north and central Texas.
The timing may need to be adjusted depending on when thunderstorms first
develop and organize. The most intense thunderstorms are expected to develop after
3 pm in areas west of a line from Bowie
to Lampasas. Thunderstorms will gradually become more numerous during the late
afternoon and evening hours as the cold front moves into the area and the
impacts of the upper level system arrive. We expect strong thunderstorms to
affect the DFW metroplex region from 5
pm to 9 pm and the Waco area from 7 pm to 11 pm. Strong to severe storms will spread into the Paris and Palestine
areas by midnight.
Isolated
showers will end across eastern parts of the area early Thursday, with dry and
mild weather expected Thursday afternoon into Friday. The next chance of storms
is forecast this weekend.
Spotter
activation may be requested as early as 3 to 4 pm west of Interstate 35.
Our
main web page link is: weather.gov/fortworth
and we will continue to update our text and
graphical forecasts as this storm system approaches. In the meantime don't hesitate
to call if we can provide any additional support.
Regards,
Greg
Patrick
NWS
Fort Worth
March
24, 2010